Maybe Next Year: Miami Marlins

2013 Vitals (As of September 21, 2013)

Record: 56-98 (Last in the National League)

Runs Per Game: 3.19 (Worst in MLB)

Runs Allowed Per Game: 4.10 (13th in MLB, 7th in NL)

Best Player: Giancarlo Stanton (2.5 fWAR, 2.2 rWAR, 3.2 WARP)

Best Pitcher: Jose Fernandez (4.3 fWAR, 6.6 rWAR, 2.9 WARP)

Worst Player: Adeiny Hechavarria (-2.0 fWAR, -2.2 rWAR, -2.1 WARP)

Worst Pitcher: Alex Sanabia (-0.6 fWAR, -0.6 WARP), Chris Hatcher (-0.7 rWAR)

Important Statistic: 172.2, IP by 20 year old Jose Fernandez, his first year of service

2013 in Review

Not a lot went well for the Marlins in 2013, but they did find the core of what should be a very good rotation for years to come. Jose Fernandez was one of the five best pitchers in the National League and electrified Miami and the entire baseball world. But you already knew about him. You probably don’t know, though, about Henderson Alvarez and Nathan Eovaldi who both put up very respectable numbers in 15 and 16 starts, respectively. They look like they will easily fill in the holes behind Fernandez in that rotation next year and beyond; providing a formidable rotation, even in the pitching heavy NL East.

On the other hand, the offense was really really bad. According to Fangraphs, three Marlins posted positive offensive value in 2013 (combining hitting and baserunning). Two of those players were outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich (who was called up in late July). The other? Starting pitcher Henderson Alvarez. Clearly, if the Marlins are going to start to rise back up, they need more offensive production.

2013 in GIFs

Note: GIFs may play better if you open in a new tab or window

via fishstripes.com 

via FanGraphs.com

Offseason Preview

Honestly, I have no idea what this team is going to do this winter. They could trade Stanton, and that seems likely given the number of reports about him. But those reports have all come from teams outside Miami wanting Stanton, not the Marlins and their intentions to trade him. Personally, I think the Marlins might actually want to keep Stanton as some sort of peace offering to a hurt fanbase. Outside of Stanton, there isn’t much that’s likely to be trade bait for the Marlins. They always could spend money if they wanted to, but it seems more likely that Loria pockets that cash. Ultimately, I think the team stands pats and hopes for internal growth.

2014 Outlook

Barring any major changes, the Marlins are going into the next season with basically the same premise as this year. Play the youngsters and hope enough of them progress to win some games. I can’t see any major improvement in their record though and, in the end, they are once again the National League’s cellar dwellars.

Maybe Next Year: Houston Astros

via ESPN

2013 Vitals (as of September 14)

Record: 51-96 (last in the AL West)

Runs Per Game: 3.99 (12th in AL)

Runs Allowed Per Game: 5.23 (15th in AL)

Best Player: Jason Castro (4.0 fWAR; 4.3 rWAR, 4.1 WARP)

Best Pitcher: Brett Oberholtzer (1.0 fWAR), Jarred Cosart (2.6 rWAR); Erik Bedard (1.5 WARP)

Worst Player: JD Martinez (-0.9 fWAR); Jimmy Paredes (-1.2 rWAR, -0.8 WARP)

Worst Pitcher: Paul Clemens (-1.2 fWAR); Lucas Harrell (-1.7 rWAR, -1.3 WARP)

Important Statistic: 1,384 K, worst (by far) in baseball, and probably second worst of all-time; 25.3 K%, worst of all time

2013 In Review

The Astros might have the worst record in baseball, but it showed promise. While they were a doormat in their new division (the AL West), they brought along several players that might be part of the next winning Astros team. Among the new standouts were Jason Castro, who finally showed why the Astros made him a top ten overall pick in 2008. His 129 wRC+ made him the second best hitting catcher in the American League (behind the Twins’ Joe Mauer). Third baseman Matt Dominguez, shortstop Jonathan Villar, and second baseman Jose Altuve all showed flashes of why they could contribute to this team for a very long time. (I’d include Chris Carter on that list, but I think he’s likely to be traded before the Astros win again. He’s a very good platoon bat who might be highly valued by a contender this offseason.)

 

The pitching side of the team likewise went through its ups and downs. Jose Veras and Bud Norris both acquitted themselves admirably before being traded to the Tigers and Orioles. Youngsters Jarred Cosart and Jordan Lyles showed flashes of their potential, with Cosart nearly throwing a no-hitter. In fact if you look at the game logs of most of the teams young pitchers, you’ll see games where they showed flashes of what their potential could be, mostly they pitched like young pitchers: struggling against a lot of better teams. It’s looking very likely that the Astros finish with the worst record in baseball for the third straight year, but it also looks like the Astros have a solid plan to win in the future.

2013 In GIFs

The emergence of Matt Dominguez

 

The Astros did this, a lot (I’d love to give credit but I don’t know where this is from, if anyone could help me out that would be awesome)

Offseason Preview

The thing about the Astros in 2013 that no one can stop talking about is their payroll, $13 Million. Looking ahead to offseason, it’s hard to believe that number won’t rise. For one, they have several players entering arbitration who could see raises. But I also believe that, if they see a player they like for their team in the future, the Astros wouldn’t be afraid to sign a free agent. Now, looking at this free agent class I don’t really see who that player, a player young enough to be productive for a contending team in three to four years, might be.

I also think the Astros might trade a couple of their players who have value now, but they don’t see contributing to their team in the future. This includes players like Carter and maybe even Castro, Altuve, or Dominguez. The Astros believe in getting value for pieces in the long-term and if they find a way to make that happen, they won’t be afraid to maximize their assets.

2014 Outlook

I think that in 2014, depending on what happens in the offseason, the Astros look like a team that will win more games than they did this year. They might even be able to sneak up to fourth place in the division. Ultimately, their team is built to start winning in 2015 and 2016 and 2014 is likely to only be a step toward winning in those seasons.